Some people enthusiastically welcome Hamengkubuwono's bid for the presidency on the grounds that he has the capacity to strengthen the unity of the country which is currently under threat from primordialism and sectarianism. The Yogyakarta governor deliberately chose Youth Pledge Day (Oct. 28) as the crucial moment for announcing his nomination in order to show his nationalistic credentials. Other people have a different view and have developed a critical assessment of his real chance to succeed in 2009.
There is no doubt that Sultan, along with Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Amien Rais played pitoval roles in forcing Soeharto to step down in May 1998. Among the four, however it is only Sultan who has not had an opportunity to hold a state position. Amien served in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) from Oct. 1999 to Sept. 2004. Gus Dur was president from Oct. 1999 to July 2001, before being replaced by Vice President Megawati. Megawati served as president until Sept. 2004.
Sultan has been active in promoting democratization in Indonesia. Unlike many other traditional monarchs, he does not want to perpetuate any kind of feudalistic privilege that normally goes with the royal status of Javanese kings. However, to succeed in the presidential election one needs more than just democratic or nationalistic credentials.
There are various factors which will determine the success of any presidential candidate in 2009. The question is: Can we make an objective assessment of Sultan's sources of strength and his weaknesses so that he or his supporters might have a reasonable judgment before entering the battlefield?
Most, if not all, presidential candidates capitalize on their political parties as their political machine to mobilize popular support. As far as Sultan is concerned, it is not yet clear which political party or coalition he will use in order to be legally eligible as a presidential candidate. The final answer to this question will be fixed after the 2009 legislative election.
For the time being, we can only guess his strategy on the basis of existing conditions. So far the Golkar Party, to which Sultan is affiliated, has not nominated any presidential candidate. Some factions and regional branches of Golkar have expressed their intention to nominate Sultan for presidency in 2009.
As chairman of Golkar, Vice President Jusuf Kalla has allowed any member of his party -- including Sultan -- to run for president in the upcoming election. However, under Jusuf Kalla's chairmanship it is very unlikely that Golkar will nominate Sultan as its presidential candidate.
There is a high probability that if Golkar wins enough popular votes in the legislative election it will nominate Jusuf Kalla as its only presidential candidate. Otherwise, Jusuf Kalla will maintain the status quo by which he would run with incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as candidate for vice president. Thus, in terms of the use of a political party as the basis of political power, Sultan's nomination remains problematic to say the least. He cannot avoid the constraint stemming from an internal competition within Golkar which is going to be quite tough given the fact that there are some factions which are not satisfied with Jusuf Kalla's ambitious leadership.
Despite the uncertainty of the political support that Sultan could get from Golkar, his self-confidence in running for presidency in 2009 is not without foundation. When Sultan held a great meeting (pisowanan agung) in Yogyakarta he invited traditional kings from all parts of the archipelago. The meeting was also attended by politicians, artists and academicians who pledged to mobilize popular support for Sultan's nomination.
It remains to be seen how effective his organization of political support will be in 2009. If he indeed relies on the traditional influence of the country's nobility he should be prepared to face the worst scenario. Why?
In this globalized world the Indonesian people are increasingly in favor of those with achieved status and cynically look down on those with ascribed status. In other words, because of modernization our society has become increasingly merit-based in their social and political attitudes.
On top of that, some of the noble families have damaged their royal reputations through various kinds of indecent behavior. Internal conflicts triggered by scrambles for royal properties are also widespread. If that is the case then it is very unlikely that they will be successful in winning the sympathy of the public.
